Syrian Civil War and Its Repercussions: From Conflict to Geopolitical Shifts

Introduction

The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, has been one of the most devastating and complex conflicts of the 21st century. Sparked by anti-government protests during the Arab Spring, the conflict quickly escalated into a multifaceted war involving domestic factions, extremist groups, and international powers. Over the past 13 years, the war has reshaped Syria and significantly impacted regional and global geopolitics.

The recent resignation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a historic turning point, bringing renewed attention to the causes, progression, and consequences of the conflict. This article delves into the origins of the war, the major players involved, and its far-reaching repercussions on the Middle East and beyond.

What has happened?

• Syrian President Bashar Assad has resigned and left Syria, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Sunday, a stunning fall for the longtime dictator who had kept rebel forces at bay for years with the help of Russia and Iran.
• Mr. Assad Flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination (Supposed to be in Russia).
• This was a dramatic turn of events within 5 days.

Understanding the Genesis of this event:

• Bashar Al-Assad became president in July 2000, succeeding his father who died on 10^th June 2000. He is the son of Hafez Al-Assad. Who was the President from 1971 until his death in 2000.
• The current movement which overthrow Bashar Al-Assad goes back to 2011 when Syrian Civil War started.
• About Syrian Civil War:
  • Started 13 years ago beginning during the Arab spring and
  • Escalated into a bloody, multifaceted conflict involving domestic opposition groups, extremist factions and International powers including US, Russia and Iran. 

Population Composition of Syria:

• Population is made up of Arabs (50%), Kurds (10%) and Alawites (15%).
• Majority of population is of Islam (87%).
• The Sunni Muslims make up the vast majority in the country.
• The Alawites are the biggest Muslim minority sect (10% of the countries population). Bashar Al-Assad belongs to this ethnic group.
• Alawites follow Alawism, a religious sect that splintered from early Shia Islam.

Situation on ground in Syria:

• In just over a week, Syrian Rebel Forces seized much of Syria north west from the government.
• First, the rebels seized Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, then days later also controlled Hama and the strategic city of Homs. 
• Yesterday, they entered Syria’s capital Damascus. 

Important Fighting Groups:

• The Syrian Government 
  • The Syrian government, led by Assad, was central to the protracted and devastating civil war that began in 2011.
  • Assad initially portrayed himself as a modern reformist, but he responded to peaceful protests during the Arab Spring with brutal crackdowns, sparking a nationwide uprising.
  • After several years of war, the Assad government clawed back much of the territory it lost to rebels with the help of Iran, Russia, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia. But those allies have recently been decimated or distracted by other conflicts.

• Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham
  • It means Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, began to form at the beginning of Syria’s civil war, when jihadis formed the Nusra Front to fight pro-Assad forces with hundreds of insurgent and suicide attacks.
  • The group had early links to the Islamic State group, and then to al-Qaida. But by mid-2016, the Nusra Front tried to shed its extremist roots, banding together with several other factions to establish Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.he Syrian government, led by Assad, was central to the protracted and devastating civil war that began in 2011.
  • The United States and other Western countries still consider it a terrorist group.
  • The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, told The New York Times his primary goal was to “liberate Syria from this oppressive regime.” He has tried to gain legitimacy by providing services to residents in his stronghold of Idlib.

In addition to these three, there are many foreign powers involved like Turkey, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

• Turkey
  • Since the beginning of the civil war, the Turkish military has launched several military interventions across the border into Syria, mostly against Syrian Kurdish-led forces. Turkey now effectively controls a zone along Syria’s northern border.

• Russia
  • Throughout Syria’s civil war, Russia has been one of Assad’s most loyal foreign backers, sending Russian troops to support his forces and jets to bomb his enemies.
  • It has maintained a strategic military presence in Syria with air and naval bases, which it uses to support military operations in the region.

• Iran and Hezbollah
  • Syria is a core part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” a network of countries and groups that includes Hezbollah, Palestinian militant group Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen that hopes to destroy Israel and reduce American influence in the Middle East.

• United States.
  • The US role in the Syrian civil war has shifted several times.
  • The Obama administration initially supported opposition groups in their uprising against the government, providing weapons and training, with limited effect.

• Israel
  • Israel military activities in Syria have been mostly focused on airstrikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets, especially senior military personnel, weapons production facilities and the transport corridor that Iran uses to send weapons to Hezbollah.

Impact on Geo-politics of Middle east:

• The ouster of Bashar al-Assad has had significant geopolitical implications for the Middle East.
  • Power Vacuum: Assad’s fall has created a power vacuum in Syria, leading to increased competition among various factions, including Sunni opposition forces, Kurdish groups, and Alawite factions.
  • Regional Influence: The removal of Assad has weakened the influence of Russia and Iran in the region, as both countries were key allies of the Assad regime.
  • Security Concerns: Neighboring countries have heightened security measures along their borders due to the potential spillover of violence and the influx of refugees. Countries like Lebanon and Jordan have closed several border crossings with Syria. 
  • International Reactions: The international community has had mixed reactions to Assad’s ouster, with some celebrating the end of his regime and others expressing concern over the potential for further conflict and instability.
  • Economic Impact: The ongoing conflict and instability have had a detrimental effect on Syria’s economy, leading to increased humanitarian needs and economic challenges for the country and its neighbors. In addition it may push the prices of oil up.

Conclusion

The Syrian Civil War and the recent resignation of Bashar al-Assad mark a significant turning point in the region’s history. This development has not only created a power vacuum in Syria but also reshaped geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, with implications for regional and international players. While Assad’s departure might signal the end of one era, the path to stability, peace, and reconstruction in Syria remains fraught with challenges. The world watches as Syria and its people navigate the complexities of post-conflict rebuilding and governance.

Preferred Questions on Syrian Civil War and Its Repercussions for UPSC

GS Paper II (International Relations and Governance):

1. How did international interventions by Russia, the United States, and Iran influence the trajectory of the Syrian Civil War?
2. Discuss the role of global powers in addressing the humanitarian crisis caused by the Syrian Civil War.
3. Analyze the implications of Bashar al-Assad’s resignation for Syria’s governance and international relations.
4. What challenges do international organizations face in mediating peace in conflicts like the Syrian Civil War?

GS Paper I (World History and Society):

1. Examine the socio-political causes of the Syrian Civil War within the broader context of the Arab Spring.
2. How did ethnic and religious diversity in Syria, including Alawites, Kurds, and Sunni Muslims, contribute to the conflict?
3. Discuss the long-term impact of the Syrian Civil War on the cultural and social fabric of the country.

GS Paper III (Security and Economy):

1. How did the Syrian Civil War contribute to the rise and spread of global terrorism, particularly through groups like ISIS?
2. Evaluate the economic consequences of prolonged conflict in Syria for the country and its neighboring regions.
3. Discuss the strategic importance of Syria’s location for regional and global powers during the conflict.

GS Paper IV (Ethics and Integrity):

1. What are the ethical dilemmas faced by nations in deciding whether to intervene in internal conflicts like the Syrian Civil War?
2. How can international organizations ensure ethical and equitable aid distribution in war-torn areas?
3. Discuss the ethical challenges of supporting rebel forces with links to extremist ideologies.