India-Sri Lanka Relations: Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s Presidency

Introduction:

Sri Lanka’s political landscape took a significant turn with the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) as the new president. Known for his Marxist ideology and his leadership in the 2022 Aragalaya Movement, Dissanayake is hailed as a figure of change. This leadership change in Sri Lanka has stirred global attention, particularly from India, due to AKD’s past anti-India stance and his proximity to China.

In this post, we’ll explore AKD’s rise to power, the Aragalaya Movement that fueled his popularity, and the implications of his presidency for India-Sri Lanka relations.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake: A Leader of Change

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, often referred to as AKD, is the 55-year-old leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party. His rise to prominence came during Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic crisis, which led to the downfall of the Rajapaksa regime. AKD, known for his Marxist ideology, is also remembered for his party’s past insurgency against Indian intervention in Sri Lanka.

His presidential campaign was built on the promise of radical change, focusing on anti-corruption, economic reforms, and reducing the power of the executive presidency. His involvement in the Aragalaya Movement cemented his status as a symbol of hope for many Sri Lankans seeking a better future.

The Aragalaya Movement: Sri Lanka’s Struggle for Change

The 2022 Aragalaya Movement was a response to the unprecedented economic crisis in Sri Lanka. The term “Aragalaya” is Sinhalese for “struggle,” and it represented the collective demand for the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, economic reforms, and a more transparent government. This movement was driven by several factors:

-Economic Factors: Sri Lanka faced severe fuel and medicine shortages, currency devaluation, unemployment, and inflation rates of over 50%.

• Political Factors: The public grew frustrated with government mismanagement, corruption, and authoritarianism, leading to widespread discontent with the Rajapaksa regime.
• Social Factors: The cost of living surged, leading to hardships among the youth and middle class, who felt abandoned by political institutions.

The movement succeeded in its demands, leading to the resignation of President Rajapaksa and the appointment of a unity government under Ranil Wickremesinghe. Dissanayake’s leadership role in the movement earned him national recognition as a potential agent of change.

Why Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s Presidency Concerns India

India has reasons to view AKD’s presidency with caution. Historically, the JVP party, under AKD’s leadership, opposed Indian intervention in Sri Lanka, including the Indian Peacekeeping Force and the India-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987. AKD is also seen as being closer to China, a factor that raises concerns in India due to China’s increasing influence in Sri Lanka.

Key concerns for India include:

-The 13th Amendment: This provision in Sri Lanka’s constitution is designed to share political power with Tamils. There are fears that AKD may scrap it, which could affect India’s Tamil population.
-Economic and Security Impacts: AKD’s stance may impact ongoing projects involving Indian conglomerates in Sri Lanka, and his China-friendly policies could pose security challenges for India, particularly concerning Chinese naval activity near Indian waters.

AKD’s Relationship with India: A Complex Dynamic

Despite his party’s anti-India past, AKD has taken steps to reshape his relationship with India. Earlier this year, he visited India to meet with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the National Security Advisor (NSA), acknowledging India’s crucial aid during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. India had provided over $4 billion in aid to help Sri Lanka overcome its financial turmoil.

AKD has reiterated that he is not anti-Indian and recognizes the importance of maintaining strong bilateral relations. Furthermore, the general sentiment during Sri Lanka’s 2023 election indicated a lack of anti-India rhetoric, with Sri Lankans appreciating India’s timely assistance.

The Way Forward: Bridging the Trust Deficit

The future of India-Sri Lanka relations under AKD will depend on both countries’ ability to bridge the existing trust deficit. Key points that need attention include:

-Security Concerns: India is particularly concerned about Chinese naval vessels, including submarines, docking at Sri Lankan ports. India expects Sri Lanka to address these security risks to maintain regional stability.
-Economic Cooperation: As the fastest-growing large economy, India offers numerous economic opportunities for Sri Lanka. Deepening economic integration could benefit both nations.
-Strategic Balance: While India does not demand that Sri Lanka sever ties with China, it does expect that Sri Lanka will not allow China to use its influence to spy on India or disrupt Indian maritime routes.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance for the Future

Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s presidency marks a significant shift in Sri Lanka’s political landscape. For India, the challenges of AKD’s leadership lie in navigating his complex relationship with China while maintaining security and economic ties with its southern neighbor. The future of India-Sri Lanka relations will depend on diplomatic efforts to address mutual concerns and foster cooperation in areas of shared interest.

Frequently Asked Questions