ISRAEL AND HAMAS AGREE TO CEASEFIRE

Introduction:

The Israel-Hamas conflict has long shaped the political and humanitarian landscape of the Middle East. After 15 months of intense fighting—triggered by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that claimed over 1,200 lives—a ceasefire has finally been brokered, signaling a possible pause in hostilities. Mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, this agreement brings new hope for peace in the Gaza Strip and has far-reaching implications for global politics and regional stability. This article delves into the details of the ceasefire, the reasons behind its acceptance by both parties, and its potential impact on India, the Middle East, and global geopolitics.

Context:

• A Ceasefire Between Israel And Hamas took hold in the Gaza Strip on Sunday.
• Three Israeli hostages released from Gaza have been handed over to Israeli forces there.
• Israel in return is expected to release nearly 90 Palestinian prisoners.

Important for UPSC:

• Map of Gaza strip, important countries in the region.
• Details of the agreement.
• Implications of the agreement at the global level as well as on India.
• Way Forward.

Details of the Ceasefire:

• After 15 months of fighting, which was triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack in which about 1,200 people were killed, Israel and Hamas have accepted a ceasefire in Gaza.
• The deal is expected to be implemented in 3 phases.
• The deal, which came into force on Sunday, was reached in talks mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the U.S.

Terms of the Ceasefire:

• The deal is to be implemented in 3 phases:
  • a.  First Phase:
    • In the 42-day first phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages, most of those alive, and Israel will free roughly 1,000 Palestinian security prisoners.
    • Israel will also partially withdraw the IDF from Gaza.
    • The IDF is expected to withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor, which separates northern Gaza, which has seen massive Israeli bombardment from Day one of the war, from the south.
    • But in the first phase, Israeli troops will remain in the Philadelphi Corridor on the Rafah crossing — which means Israel will continue to monitor Gaza’s border with   Egypt.
  • b.  Second Phase:
    • On the 16^th day of the first phase, discussions are expected to begin on the second phase.
    • In the second stage, Hamas will be required to release most of the remaining living hostages (65) and both sides should declare a permanent end to the hostilities.
  • c.  Third Phase:
    • Negotiations are expected to begin on the 17^th day of the ceasefire.
    • It would be focused on Gaza’s reconstruction.
    • The bodies of any remaining hostages who died during captivity would also be returned to their families. 

ØWhy did both parties accept a ceasefire?

• Context:
  • The deal accepted by both parties is not essentially different from the deal offered eight months ago. But a lot has changed since then in the region.
• From the perspective of Israel:
  • a.  Israel now believes its regional standing has become stronger.
  • b.  Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia organization, has lost most of its top leadership in Israeli attacks.
  • c.  The IDF has killed most of the leaders of Hamas, including Yahya   Sinwar.
  • d.  The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has further weakened Iran’s so called ‘axis of resistance’ in West Asia.
  • e.  Mr. Assad’s Syria was the land bridge between Iran and Hezbollah. Since this land bridge is disrupted,   Hezbollah will find it difficult to rearm itself.
  • f.  After months of fighting, Israel failed to meet its declared objectives in Gaza.
  • g.  Israeli attacks have degraded Hamas’s militant infrastructure, but Hamas reinvented itself as an insurgency, its original avatar.
  • h.  The US factor specifically Trump.

Role of US:

• The Biden Factor: The Biden administration has been pushing for a ceasefire for long, but it also offered full support to Israel’s war in Gaza.
  • a.   Diplomatic protection to Israel.
  • b.  Weapon supply
• The Trump factor: Mr. Trump is known for his pro-Israel positions. But he had promised during his campaign that he would bring the wars in West Asia and Ukraine to an end if returned to the White House.
  • a.  Mr. Trump may not like the U.S. being drawn into another never-ending war in the region.
  • b.  Houthis Factor
  • c.  Controlling the inflationary pressure.

Implications on Global Politics:

• More stability in the Middle East: Spill over conflicts like the attacks by Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon may come down.
• Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman, has been speaking in much harsher terms about the Israel campaign in Gaza and made it very clear that the normalization of Saudi relations with Israel will require a Palestinian State.
• Deflationary pressure on global economy: Normal freight traffic through the Suez Canal could resume and inflationary pressure on the global economy may come down.

Conclusion:

The Israel Hamas ceasefire marks a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics. While the three-phase agreement may not resolve all tensions, it provides a much-needed reprieve for civilians and an opportunity for regional and global actors to engage in constructive diplomacy. For India, the developments in Gaza underline the need for a nuanced approach to its foreign policy, balancing its strategic ties with Israel and its long-standing support for Palestinian statehood. As the world watches the implementation of the ceasefire, the global community must prioritize humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and a long-term resolution to one of the region’s most protracted conflicts.