Introduction:
India’s foreign policy has increasingly become a focal point of discussion among media, academia, and civil society, reflecting the nation’s rising global stature and leadership’s proactive diplomacy. However, the polycrisis of 2024 has set the stage for a more complex and challenging 2025. From a nervous neighborhood to the implications of U.S.-China dynamics, India faces a daunting task of balancing regional stability with global ambitions. This article examines the evolving landscape of India’s foreign policy, highlighting key challenges and strategic imperatives.
Context:
- Today, foreign policy is a hot issue in India’s media, academia and civil society.
- The appetite for foreign policy related developments has increased due to two factors:
- Growth of India’s economy along with its global profile.
- Pro-activeness on the part of leadership to project its ambition to be a leading power on the world stage.
- Seeing the 2024 polycrisis, the year 2025 seems to bring in a host of fresh troubles for India.
Challenges for India:
- Nervous neighbourhood.
- The biggest churn is taking place in India’s traditional area of influence: South Asia.
- The ouster of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government in Dhaka by student protestors, and the peaceful change of government in Sri Lanka and the Maldives has forced Delhi to deal with a new limitation in South Asia:
- It implies India’s friends are no longer running the show vital to India’s strategic, economic and security interests.
- New political forces with a history of animosity to India have taken charge.
- In Nepal and Bhutan, China looms large.
- Bhutan and China have been in talks for a border deal that could impact Dokalam trijunction.
- KPS Oli return as prime minister through Nepal’s revolving door of power will keep India on its toes.
- In Afghanistan: India has embraced the Taliban for security reasons but otherwise has zero influence.
- Delhi is a mute bystander to the treatment being meted out by the Taliban to Afghan women.
- People to people ties have also been cut down.
- In Pakistan: Always been inimical to India.
- Internal instability of Pakistan should also remain a cause of concern for India.
- In Myanmar:
- The most ignored country in India.
- The Myanmar junta, that India supports, has lost swathes of territory on all sides to ethnic militias and post-coup civilian militias.
- Close to India, the entire Rakhine state is now under the control of the ethnic Arakan Army.
The Trump Factor:
- The headline worry at the end of the year is that US President-elect Donald Trump has not yet invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a visit to Washington.
- Trump has invited President Xi Jinping to his inaugural on January 20.
- The trouble over the alleged bid to kill the Khalistani advocate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun does not seem to be blowing over.
- Another important issue is Gautam Adani indictment.
The Chinese Factor:
- After the October agreement with China on restoring Indian patrolling in Depsang and Demchok, three sets of meetings have taken place between the two sides:
- Between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping in Kazan;
- External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi; and
- NSA Ajit Kumar Doval and Wang Yi.
- However, tensions have re-emerged once again on issue of creation of two counties in Aksai Chin and construction of dam on Brahmaputra.
- China has, of late, taken a series of steps to strengthen security cooperation with nations of the Global South.
- Facilitated reconciliation talks among various Palestine factions.
- China and African nations jointly agreed to progress the China-sponsored Global Security Initiative (GSI).
- China also managed to steal a march over India during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit held in Pakistan in October.
- Mr. Xi again took full advantage of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, in Peru in November, to strengthen ties with ‘traditional enemy’, Japan.
Russia: a Tough Balancing:
- A planned visit to India by President Vladimir Putin of Russia early in the new year will set the stage for a new phase of India’s geopolitical balancing act in a world that has been in flux since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- It needs to keep Russia from ganging up with China.
- It also needs Moscow’s support to emerge as an important pole in a multipolar world, as a leader of the Global South, and
- Russia is also India’s hedge in its relations with the US.
Israel’s and Middle East:
- What started on October 7, 2023, as a “self-defence operation” against Hamas after its strike inside Israel, was soon termed a “plausible” genocide by the International Court of Justice .
- This month, India voted in favour of two resolutions at the General Assembly, one calling Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights illegal, and another for a ceasefire in Gaza.
- Not that UN resolutions will end the conflict, but India, whose relationship with the Gulf states is better than it used to be, is making efforts to stay in the room with the Arabs.
Conclusion:
India’s foreign policy in 2025 stands at a crossroads, defined by both formidable challenges and unprecedented opportunities. From recalibrating ties in a nervous neighborhood to managing complex dynamics with global powers like China, the U.S., and Russia, India must tread carefully to safeguard its strategic, economic, and security interests. While the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty, India’s resolve to remain a key player on the world stage underscores its commitment to shaping a stable and multipolar world order.
